Ukraine: It's all about the gas

The biggest factor for Europeans considering military support for Ukraine is gas prices going up. Not Trump, nor morals.

Soaring natural gas prices are again crippling European industry and sparking a cost-of-living crisis.

Gas is double a year ago and 8x higher than US. So it’s hurting:

• German industrial production was down 4.5% in 2024 (Destatis)

• Dec to Dec: Austria industry fell 9.5%, Italy 7.1%, and Hungary 6.4% (GMK)

• In the UK gas prices mean fertiliser giant Yara is shuttering its ammonia plant in Hull (Yahoo)

• EU commerical vehicle sales expected to drop 4.2% this year (S&P)

• The cold winter means storage levels are low, and refilling worries are pushing summer prices up

Renewables & nukes help keep prices down but we don’t have enough, yet.

Most politicians are weak, short-term creatures who will sell anyone down the river for a few votes. They want a solution to their domestic problems rather than stand for something.

Does Trump’s desire to stop supporting Ukraine give them excuse they need?

With peace, Russian gas will flow. Goldman Sachs thinks prices might drop 50% (ForexLive). Gas futures dropped 5% after Trump had a simple phone call with Putin this week (X).

Maybe Europe fights for its principles. Or maybe it remembers Bismark - “The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia.”