🆕 This is the first of an occasional “Deep dive” format. Let me know your thoughts, via the poll below.

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China: Climate Saint or Climate Sinner? Well, both.

China means more to the energy transition than everyone else combined. Some praise its industrial might and amazing tech. Others point to huge carbon emissions.

To meet climate goals, we depend on Chinese kit AND on a rapid drop in carbon emissions by China itself.

Is that ‘crash decarbonisation’ going to happen? Unlikely. Without it, we’re locked in to big temperature rises.

Which can be mitigated - by everyone else buying Chinese technology 😵‍💫😵‍💫😵‍💫.

China the Saint 😇

More renewables than everyone else put together

Bigger than you ever believed possible. By the way, they hit their 2030 solar/wind goal in mid-2024 (Reuters).

Solar ☀️
2024: Added 277GW, 60% of all solar installed last year worldwide.
Total: 900GW, double EU and 6x USA

Wind 💨
2024: Installed 60GW - 14x what the US did
Total: 520GW, which is half the world’s wind power.

Hydro 💦
2024: Announced bonkers plans for 60GW damn in Tibet (past 10SC)
Total: Already one-third of total global hydro

Batteries 🔋
2024: Installed 42GW (PVM) - about the size of UK’s grid
Total: Largest fleet in world at 74GW. 20x bigger than 2021

Nuclear ☢️
2024: 28 new reactors under construction - compared to zero in USA
Total: 57 reactors - one more than France, less than US at 96 (IBNews)

Manufacturing at the scale the world needs

They dominate clean energy across the whole supply chain. No-one else has made the investment - China has.
And it’s cheap? Cheaper labour yes, but also lower environmental protections, sadly. One of the reasons for low cost.

How big?

Really big. BYD’s new car+battery factory is larger than San Fransisco.
So BYD growing? Will ship 5m cars this year - 10× their 2020. Bigger than Ford. And General Motors. And Honda. And Nissan. And Mercedes. And BMW. (Reuters)

Driving cost below what anyone thought possible even one year ago

Give me an example. This year entire, installed, grid-scale battery storage system (BESS) was agreed at $65/kWh.
Um. What does that actually mean? Crazy cheap. Last year Bloomberg forecast that it’d be 2030 before batteries alone would go below $80/kWh. Under that already for a whole system? Staggering 🤯.
Read more: PV Magazine

China the sinner 👹

China’s energy policy has many serious failings, points out Foreign Policy Magazine.

Bottom line: Massive carbon emissions.

👹 Since signing Paris agreement in 2015, China has accounted for 90% of all global growth in carbon emissions
👹 Currently produces 30%+ of the world’s fossil fuel carbon
👹 Total carbon emissions are 2x US, 4x EU
👹 Since 2011, consistently used more coal every year than the rest of the world combined
👹 One of the few countries financing new coal plants in the developing world
👹 Hydro plants have huge impact on the environment

What’s next?

Possibly amazing news. Reports say China’s emissions may have peaked in 2024 (New Scientist) 🤞🤞🤞. Let’s see if so - and how fast they might drop.

This year, a new 10-year climate plan is due: a big test. Carbon Brief asked the experts what they expect:

• Solar and wind additions will probably be lower than last year (but still huge)

• Sadly, new coal will continue at pace

• Nuclear fleet will continue to expand - potentially becoming cheaper than coal over the long-term

• China’s internal carbon markets will expand to cover heavy emitting industries like steel, aluminium and cement

• First regulated voluntary carbon markets opening

The bottom line

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