What mattered this week

New Tory energy plan is nonsense 😱. Meanwhile, gas continues to screw us all

Huh? Tory idea: Scrap net zero, get cheap power. Easy 🥳.

Except…? It’s nonsense. Plan is predicated on gas being cheaper than now & always so 🤔. And building new power stations being… cheaper than now 🧐. And plain cancelling grid upgrades 🙄.

And back in the real world? Hormuz cost fossil importers an extra $330bn this year. Gas doesn’t behave.

Meanwhile, my bill? Ofgem just raised UK’s energy prices. Why: Gas price went up 🫣. (Ofgem)

Read more: CREA's tally; Carbon Brief's Tory factcheck

“Enjoy the hot summer,” says Reform. Good advice, if you don’t like food

I did enjoy the hot summer? Good. Just like Reform's deputy leader told you too.

I think a ‘but’ is coming? Uh-huh. Farmers. UK’s 2026 harvest the smallest ever recorded. And, err, four of the five worst harvests on record are from this decade.

Read more: ECIU on the smallest harvest ever

Meanwhile, Australia’s clean power means a free lunch

Free power? Three hours middle of every day. Wholesale prices nearly halved in a year.

What's the catch? Too much solar at lunchtime. Oh, it’s not a catch.

Read more: the Solar Sharer scheme; ABC explainer; AEMO on half-price wholesale power

One BIG thing to worry about

For thirty years the oceans absorbed 90% of the extra heat we’ve been trapping.

Now, it’s giving some back.

That's what this super El Niño is. Not weather. A payback.

Sea surface temperatures broke the all-time record last week – 21.1°C, in the season the ocean is meant to be cooling. The Met Office calls it the strongest El Niño in living memory.

Most importantly James Hansen – the man who first warned Congress in 1988 – says its freak strength is ours.

2027 is forecast to take 2026's crown as hottest year ever recorded. (Tony Juniper)

A few things to be optimistic about

• China covered a dead high-altitude desert in the world's largest solar farm. The land woke up. Panels give shade, cut wind and cause evaporation; grass returned; 20,000 sheep now graze it (CGTN)

• The world's largest battery-electric aircraft – a 30-seater – just made its first flight, on about $5 of electricity. (The Driven)

• Africa is installing ~100,000 solar panels a day – its third record year running. (Ember)

• BYD is bringing Britain 300 chargers that do 10% to 90% in nine minutes. Hardly time to boil the kettle, let alone enjoy a cuppa. (via John Hanger)

• Spain, which promised to close its nuclear fleet, just extended it to 2030. “Further U-turns likely.” (Javier Blas). Avoiding Germany’s mistake of dismantling reliable, clean baseload power.

• Batteries now let California and Bulgaria run a quarter of the evening on sunshine. (Ember)

• Renewables now generate more of the world's electricity than coal – the first time in a hundred years. (Ember)

There’s a LOT to be excited about.

If you’ve got more time…

The biggest surprise in writing this newsletter for nearly three years is how much the climate and energy story is ALL about China 🇨🇳.

Now we have a term. Ezra Klein calls it China Shock 2.0.

First China took over manufacturing for Western companies. Mainly simple stuff.. Now China is dominating the complex tech of the future – EVs, batteries, solar, and the software on top.

• Chinese Electric Vehicle manufacturing capacity is enough to meet all global demand. All of it. Currently they are are shipping cars in furniture containers as there aren’t enough car-carrying ships (Finbarr Bermingham)

• China’s battery capacity is multiples of current demand - so no-one else can realistically enter the market, ever

• China dominates rare earth supply chains, especially in refining. Western manufacturers are reliant on them, even if we could make stuff at home

• China is installing 100 solar panels a second – and output capacity now double Europe and America combined (Geoffrey Lean)

• Beijing is weighing hosting COP33 – the climate-leadership chair the West vacated (Bloomberg £)

• And that’s before we get to their cheap AI software

Ezra’s podcast is worth a listen: The China Shock 2.0 (Youtube)