⏳ Burnham: Don't wait for ages to save nothing

Britain has a new PM with an actual economic theory. What does it mean for energy?

His philosophy: Private money costs more than public debt. Sell private owners an essential asset and consumers pay more, forever. So buy it back, borrow at government rates, pass the saving on.

In water, they’re probably right. Thames Water is the red-faced villain, standing in front of us.

But in power this isn’t the case.

Cheap power already happened

The government worked out the issue - it’s about risk:

• Offshore wind is being built cheaper than new gas can me. Cheaper than anything else.

• All of this is cheap because government took the downside risk

• Once the risk was taken was certain, pension cash funded it at a whisker over what the Treasury pays to borrow - off the government’s bookes.

The state already sets the terms. It just doesn’t hold the asset.

Which is roughly what Burnham’s ownership doctrine wants.

But do they realise that?

They’ll find it ou, slowly

Expectation: couple years of reviews and thinking out loud, ending most likely in the discovery that the system is already what they want.

But that means… delay.

• Confidence from international funders falls away if the rules are consulted on endlessly

• Development equity burns pointlessly

• Lose your turbine slot, booked years out, delays are huge

So the inward investment just goes to other countries.

Message to No10 (north or south)

Stop holding out for better terms. The rules today give the best funding on offer.

Certainty is worth more than the idea you’ll save a small debt margin.

Remember, “Great British Energy” holds about one wind farm’s worth of cash, it’s just not much. The Chancellor has made the fiscal rules his first duty, and the bond markets are watching.

You can’t buy the power sector - because there’s nothing in the coffers to buy it with. But you don’t need to.