What you need to know

Vlad’s winter gas bet - off for the second year?

Why this matters? Putin hoped Europe would be on its knees without his gas. But another warm autumn and US LNG ships means the EU’s 90-days of gas storage is 99.5% full. Likely, enough for winter.
Your challenge? Take an out-breath, we probably avoid escalation. Risks: a cold snap; French nukes going down or Asia upping demand.
Read more: Morningstar, Energy Flux for technical analysis

Central bank banks on commercial banks unbankable as climate changes

Why this matters? The European Central Bank (ECB) began enforcement against commercial banks not managing climate risk when lending. Concerns: extreme weather so volatile earnings, and entire industries becoming uninvestable.
Your challenge? A constant theme: financiers worry about your climate risk. Banks lend long-term and see the 2030s. Big questions inbound to your CFO.
Read more: Climate X

This “COP-out” headline will write itself

Why this matters? COP returns: the annual dream that over a weekend 193 countries will agree hugely disruptive energy & industrial policy to reshape civilisation and save the planet.
Wait, what? Welcome to the “Conference of the Parties” 🤷‍♂️ (or COP). Back for the 28th attempt at solving climate change, this time hosted by a petro-state.
Their challenge? To make real policy. Ha! See below the yawning gulf between actual plans and the overhyped promises from previous COPs.
Your challenge? To remember climate is a technology problem solved mostly by people and companies. Innovation has impact (LEDs, solar, EVs), while government-mandated incumbent-led boondoggles tend to fail, be too slow or cost a fortune (looking at you, Carbon Capture).
So what do I actually do? My advice - get on with your own future; ignore these 70,000 virtue signalling bureaucrats preaching on their (your?) expense accounts.
Read more: Make it a a meal. Start with Carbon Brief on who wants what at COP28: Can you make it add up? For a main, digest Adair Turner’s Energy Transitions Commission on what needs to be done, but won’t be. With a strong chaser, finish with UNEP’s predictions of “hellish” 3ºC warming (Guardian). Then sit in a dark corner, and ruminate.

One thing to worry about

Live in London? Better learn to swim…

This map shows areas of London below annual flood levels in 2040. When sea levels go, the Thames Barrier won't help. We live in the red zone. My son didn’t find it funny…

One thing to be optimistic about

For 5.5 days this month, Portugal ran on 100% renewables. Lots of bad weather helped - high wind for the turbines 💨 and rain for reservoirs 🌧️ .

Yes, it’s a small country with a lot of flexible hydro. Most countries would need gas to step in. Encouraging nonetheless. 🇵🇹🇵🇹🇵🇹

Read more: Canary Media

If you’ve got more time, read this…

Bezos-funded study out - the world is behind on 41 of 42 policies required to hit 2030 goals 😖. The one on track? EV sales 😀.

A long, sobering read: WRI’s annual “State of Climate Action” report

Thanks for reading. For the last 15 years, I’ve been founding energy transition businesses including Estover Energy (industrial biomass CHP), and co-founded 3ti (solar/EV charging/batteries in one). I sit on the board of Active Energy Group (high carbon bio).

My new business is Beaverbrook Energy - supporting commercial & industrial companies in the energy transition. Follow us on LinkedIn ahead of our 2024 launch.