A mid-year reflection

Last week, while taking a break with the family, I considered my divided view on our climate future.

On one hand, depressed: the science is scary and getting worse. On the other hand, bullish: the technology is incredible and keeps improving.

So this mid-year note simply reports both sides. I make no prediction, I just write to raise awareness.

Please help: forward this to friends and colleagues. Share on social media. Anyone can subscribe for free here.

Best,

Max

First, science: 2 stories to scare the pants off you

You’ve seen the temperature graphs. Let’s have some real horror stories 👹🫣.

AMOC: 40% risk of 1,000 year ice age for Europe, by 2039

Why this matters? The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation brings warmth north, stopping Europe being Canada.
What’s the risk? We know AMOC is slowing. There’s a 35-45% chance of abrupt irreversible collapse within 15 years. (That’s from the global expert speaking this week).
What the worst that can happen? Europe cold as Labrador, or worse, for 1,000 years. Happened before: Younger Dryas period, not fun.
Watch Rahmstorf’s keynote closing remarks. He spent 30 years; take a minute.
Read: Summary published by The Oceanography Society

Heat is here: people will move in their billions

What is happening? We are now 1.61°C above pre-industrial temperatures (Copernicus). Remember the 1.5°C target?

• Last 12 months: Hottest 12 months in the last 100,000 years (CNN)

• Last 18 months: UK’s wettest ever: more heat, more rain in some places (Sky)

• January: Venezuela lost all its glaciers (BBC) 

• Spring: Unprecedented heat waves hit India, Pakistan and SE Asia, widespread deaths. In Mexico, monkeys dropping, dead, from trees ‘like apples’

• Yesterday: Egypt’s hottest day ever & Africa’s hottest June day: 50.8°C

• Coming on 26th June: Mexico City may be out of water: more heat, less less rain in some places

What’s the risk? Whole regions unliveable. Billions of people having to move.
Read more: Professor David King, previously UK Government’s Chief Scientific Advisor on how we can survive.

Now, optimism: 6 tech stories to cheer you up

We are doing more, faster, and cheaper than many people thought possible.

We are humans: we can build.

1. China’s emissions may have peaked in 2023, thanks to massive investment in clean power

As their extraordinary investment in renewables continues, this year may see their emissions decrease.

This is due to a huge investment in clean energy - and investing comparatively little in fossil fuels.

2. US: a lot of talk, but building 99% clean power

Electricity is only a part of energy, but the direction of travel is clearly towards renewable generation.

3. Clean means cheaper, says IEA (a big change)

Huge: clean meant big bills only a few years ago. Now, it looks like it’ll cost less than business as usual.

4. Solar: fastest technology in history, getting cheaper all the time

Solar power will be everywhere. There are no moving parts, prices keep dropping, and it is usable in so many places.

The falling cost of solar is astonishing. Check out the Y-axis: it’s logarithmic 🤯🤯🤯.

5. Battery production through the roof, including recycling

Solar power becomes reliable power with batteries. And we’re scaling fast.

Don’t worry about metals, we’re already recycling 90%. We have enough and will get to a point where we don’t need to mine new metals (all recycled).

6. Renewable heating is here: 65% German new builds using heat pumps

Heat pumps work, but they are tricky to install, so governments need to push. Still, it’ll happen.

Thanks for reading - and please share

Despite the good news, greenhouse gas emissions are still increasing.

Despite the bad news, we are doing things people said were impossible.

Let’s be frightened. And get to work.

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