What you need to know

The arctic is taking a leak; Vlad’s gas blown

What’s happening? The polar vortex is leaking. Bomb cyclone to hit the US: temp down 25ºC. Europe’s cold: Norway hit -50ºC 🥶.
Climate change? Yes: Scientists predicted more, greater leaks of arctic air. Hence “Climate Change” not “global warming”. (And it’s hot down south - see graphic)
Putin going to be rich(er)? No. Gas prices fell this week. Half the cold season done, EU gas storage brimming, US imports flowing. Two winters down, Putin’s lost both.
Read more: Javier Blas (Bloomberg)

IEA ups renewables forecast, yet again

We’re motoring. IEA’s 2028 prediction of a year ago revised up by 728GW (size India + Germany 😲). Renewables overtakes coal 2025 - previously 2028.
Why? Solar and wind are now cheaper than new coal and gas, almost everywhere.
Is this enough? Doesn’t meet COP28’s target of tripling renewables by 2030. But - forecasts up again next year?
Read more: IEA’s Renewables 2023 report; Carbon Brief’s analysis

UK did a thing: carbon down by 50%

We can be proud of ourselves? Yes. The biggest drop of any G20 country. 320m tonnes vs 1970’s 652m tonnes. We’re at 1894 levels, when the car was invented. 🇬🇧 🇬🇧 🇬🇧
So we’re the good guys? Maybe. We’re 0.9% global emissions now, but we pumped out 4.5% of historical carbon, as we started early.

One thing to worry about

The sea: it’s hot. Look at the red line 🤯. We’re going to need a bigger Y-Axis.

One thing to be optimistic about

Doomsters wrong again. This time: lithium.

• 2020 Forget EVs and grid storage: there’s not enough lithium, predicts Forbes

• 2022-3: We found masses of lithium - in USA, India and Iran

• 2024: Too much lithium, prices falling, mines closing, reports Argus

• 2024-5: Turns out we don’t need lithium anyway: sodium-ion batteries announced by BYD and Northvolt

If you’ve got more time, think about this…

Opposition to nuclear is emotional, not factual. Like flying: accidents are visible and scary, so we misjudge how extraordinarily safe it is.

This thread from Tomas Pueyo shows nuclear is:

• Safe: fewest deaths per unit of energy

• Lowest radiation. A year living next to a nuclear plant? Less radiation than eating a banana

• Cleanest: No air pollution. Carbon emissions 10% of solar

• Low waste. All the highly radioactive waste ever created could fit in a football field, four metres high. The rest isn’t that bad: In 1956 Queen Elizabeth was given plutonium in a plastic bag when she opened Calder Hall “and invited to feel how warm it was” 🤪

• Terrorism-proof: Extraordinarily hard to force a meltdown - forget blowing it up or a plane crash. A 3m tsunami hit a Japanese nuke this month - and it was fine

• Security of supply. Don’t need petro-states, or Chinese manufacturing. Fuel available from many places, even sea water.

• Lasts: We have enough fuel until the heat death of the sun, 5bn years

Yea, it’s expensive to build. Nothing is perfect. “Too little, too late and too expensive,” says SGR this week. Reminds me of Nick Clegg stopping nukes in 2010 - ‘as it’d take until 2022’ 😤.

Lots of good news: a big expansion planned by 24 countries. UK is extending the life of four plants, again (FT), and pushing lots of small plants ‘almost anywhere’ (Times). US regulators contemplate stations running for 100 years (Utility Dive). France plans 14 new reactors (Reuters).

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For the last 15 years, I’ve been founding energy transition businesses. My new business is Beaverbrook Energy - supporting commercial & industrial companies in the energy transition. Follow us on LinkedIn.