Happy New Year! To kick off 2024, here are some themes to watch for and ideas to think about.

Themes for 2024

Global affairs to laugh in the face of climate

What? The science alarm is sounding, and we have the technology. Yet deployment needs politicians to focus on and deliver long-term policy.
But elected leaders think long-term! Haha. 2024: elections in the US and UK. The Russians, Gaza, Iran. The Panama Canal is drying up… and now Suez.
So? The urgent will top the important. Sadly, atmospheric chemistry will do its thing nonetheless.
Read more: S&P’s 2024 Energy Outlook for a broad view of 2024

Natural gas prices give breathing space… probably

Really? The US is pumping a lot, their prices are low & more is going overseas. European demand looks permanently reduced. Developing countries want coal instead - rightly cautious of global gas markets (see: Pakistan).
Great news? No. Sure, you save cash, but incentives to switch to renewables are reduced.
Read more: Technical analysis from Energy Flux 

Coal to ramp up, and up

But coal is dead? Only in the West. Emerging economies are filling their boots. It’s cheap, you see. The IEA forecasts 8.5bn tons burnt this year - a record 🤕.
That bad? You know it. Coal is the largest source of carbon emissions and air pollution.
What can we do? Not much. Bryce on the iron law of energy: “people, businesses, and countries will do whatever they have to do to get the electricity they need”.
Read more: IEA’s Coal Analysis & Forecast, Robert Bryce on Substack

Two things to be optimistic about

1- Electric Vehicles kick ass

US EV sales hit 1m last year, three years ahead of projections made… one year ago. And 18 years ahead of the 2021 projections 🤯🤯🤯.

Another example? Dutch new cars in 2023: 31% electric, 37% hybrid.

I’m making a call: combustion is dead in the West <10 years. EVs are just better, as well as cleaner. The twin problems of batteries and charging are all but solved and will get extraordinarily good. The only issue is rolling it out, which is timing.

Watch the FT’s Death of the Combustion Engine. To annoy the ignorant or cure MSM reading, enjoy this takedown of anti-EV drivel.

2- Solar astonishes, again

Solar: 38% more power for 83% less cash, in the last decade. Err, wow. (Bloomberg New Energy Finance)

A worry (broken record edition)

This bad boy’s back: December was the seventh consecutive month to smash temperature records. So, 2023 is the hottest year on record, albeit pushed by a strong El Nino.

James Hansen says we’re over 1.5ºC; Berkeley Earth gives it a 99% chance. In 2015, this was forecast to happen in 2045. (Others think we’re lower, but not massively so).

How hot? Robin Williams was clear on this in Good Morning Vietnam.

Why? Energy imbalance: more coming in, than going out. Kind of like a… greenhouse.

If you’ve got more time, think about this…

Quality lives rely on energy: there is no such thing as a low-energy rich country (see graph). And in 2050, we’ll be 9.5bn humans: call it 50% more energy needed, all things considered.

Degrowth, consuming less, is a lazy idea from people who stopped dreaming, engineering and building. (And often liked by those who want to judge and control.)

We have the low-carbon technology needed. We must summon the imagination to believe that we can build, and the drive to get spades in the ground.

Let’s set our sights high, and move.

Thanks for reading. For the last 15 years, I’ve been founding energy transition businesses including Estover Energy (industrial biomass CHP), and co-founded 3ti (solar/EV charging/batteries in one). I sit on the board of Active Energy Group (high carbon bio).

My new business is Beaverbrook Energy - supporting commercial & industrial companies in the energy transition. Follow us on LinkedIn ahead of our 2024 launch.