10-Second Climate

After such knowledge, what forgiveness? / TS Eliot

Climate & energy are changing everything.
A new age of cheap, abundant energy beckons. But we’re not cutting emissions, so risk serious consequences.
A new world is coming, one way or another.
This is the fastest way to keep up.

What mattered this week

Yes, the war will hurt. Like hell.

Why the melodrama? Ripple effects.
Oh. Food is next. c50% of seaborne urea (read: fertiliser) comes from the Gulf. Others need cheap gas - facilities closing across Asia. Planting season soon 😫.
Next up? Industrial inputs: phosphorous, helium, sulphur, methanol, naphtha, ethylene and the list goes on. The Gulf matters.
For how long? Weeks to months, at a minimum (oilprice.com)
Read more: Watch Ed Conway (below)

If you depend on fossil fuels, you’re a hostage.

Who’s worst off? Developing economies, as energy imports stop. Rich countries just pay.
Who?

  • Pakistan. Gas <5 days. Facing ‘Covid era’ measures such as home working and weekly price hikes.

  • Bangladesh. 14 days diesel. Rationing for lorries

  • Thailand. 60 days oil. Banning petroleum exports

  • India: 74 days oil. Cutting industrial gas quotas.

  • Japan. 254 days of oil. But only 21 of gas. (@assaadrazzouk)

And who’s best off? USA is self sufficient. China seeks to have a huge strategic reserve.

What’s the solution? Secure, home-grown electric power.

Gloating? No, we need fossils for decades - they still maintain our abundant lives.
Shouldn’t UK drill more? Maybe, but it wouldn’t change the prices. We have little left anyway (Sky).
Read more: Japan Times on the moment for renewables

One thing to worry about

One thing?

That’d be nice.

One thing to be optimistic about

Europe is the most energy efficient economy (@benbawan).

More out from each unit in.

The best thing in an energy crisis?

Not needing that extra molecule.

If you’ve got more time…

Jigar Shah (Biden’s energy bigwig) wrote on LinkedIn on China moving the world off fossils.

  • China exports electric vehicles, solar, and batteries cheap enough that it’s highly attractive to fossil-importing countries

  • When you electrify something, you reduce that country’s oil demand forever

  • The hard currency used to import fuels can be invested locally

In practice, 12% of China's vehicles are now EVs, and fuel sales plunged 5.7% in 2025 (@stats_feed).

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