What matters

Big Oil knew this was coming. But turkeys don’t vote for Christmas.

What happened? For over 70+ years big oil’s own scientists warned their execs.
Why did they do this? If you earned $53,000/day since Jesus was born, you still wouldn’t match what Shell made in 2022. 😳 (@mikehudema)
Will they be held to account? Litigation is coming. Big time.
Read more: RSN “We have the receipts”; CleanTechnica “What did Exxon know, and when?”; The Ecologist : “Oil knew climate risk from ‘50s'“

‘A little bit of warming will be good for you’

What they say: Matt Ridley et al spin warming as ‘net beneficial’: nights warmer, more greening, vineyards in Yorkshire etc.
The playbook: Admit the undeniable (“OK it’s warming. Climate has always changed!”). Downplay the consequences (“it’s fine”). Select facts like a menu (CO2 good for plants; ignore heat stress). Claim expertise (“Trust only me”). End with helplessness (“China so bad”)
Reading to counter the nonsene: https://skepticalscience.com/ does a good job; Carbon Brief had done Ridley takedowns for over a decade now and has a good set of surgical FactChecks

The Scoreboard

How accurate have the forecasts been?

Very.

Some want you to believe “nobody really knows what’ll happen.”

But, err, we do know.

One thing to worry about

The internet gives everyone a platform.

Like, Mel Gibson talking to Joe Rogan about sea ice.

Doesn’t make it true.

Suggestion: Don’t listen to Mel Gibson about sea ice.

One thing to be optimistic about

The grown-ups are shouting louder.

If you want anti-nonsense, follow Lord Adair Turner’s new lecture series at the LSE.

His view? There is no technological barrier to limiting global warming to well below 2°C, and abundant green low-cost energy for all is coming.

If you’ve got more time…

So, the UK government wrote a paper on the effects of climate change that was so terrifying they buried it.

It took a Freedom of Information for “Global biodiversity loss, ecosystem collapse and national security” to be published last week.

Some highlights

• Ecosystems aren’t about nature alone - but national security. Food, water, health, supply chains.

• And every critical ecosystem is on a pathway to collapse

• Expect migration up, conflict risk up

• Food is the big one: UK imports ~40% of its food so prices will rise and goods be restricted

The Bottom Line

People are making a lot of money from your doubt.