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Editorial: One year in 🎂

First anniversary today! After 15 years in energy, I started this newsletter to share this message:

• The science clearly indicates civilisational collapse in our lifetimes

• But our lives rely on fossil fuels. We can’t just stop, or prevent poor countries from using them

• Luckily, we are inventing new technologies at breakneck speed, and driving down costs in ways no-one thought possible (hat tip to China)

• So we can get out of this mess, but we’ve got to be quick

Thank you for your support. I appreciate the messages, stories you send and referrals to new readers.

Max

PS If you want to give 10SC a birthday present, forward this email to friends or post to socials (www.maxaitken.com/subscribe - lots of nice testimonials)

What you need to know

Ukraine has 99 problems but Russians paying ain’t one

What? Ukraine is still piping Russian gas to Europe, and paid well for it: it’s 5% of Ukrainian GDP 🤯. Contract is up in 2025 and everyone’s like ‘what do we do now’.
So they’re going to stop? Well, no.
FFS! Come on, it makes sense. Russia sells gas to pay for bombing Ukraine. Ukraine cashes the fees and builds drones to bomb Russia. And the EU keeps voters toasty warm, while putting its hands over its ears & humming ‘Ode to Joy’.
Will the Russians bomb the pipeline? Ha! No.
Read more: Bruegel

Sahara floods for first time in 50 years

Deserts don’t want to be left out? Well, everyone else is flooding right now. This week France and Sicily.
Good news? For once. Refills reservoirs & aquifers.
Read more: Guardian

Big IEA renewables report, geeks geeking out, but it ain’t good news

I don’t want to read it. What do I need to know? Electricity usage skyrocketing (good); solar and batteries up massively (great).
Bad news? Coal demand forecast up, gas not going down, we’re way off track for net zero (like, really bad).
Read more: Full blown IEA report; Dave Jones’ summary thread (X).

One thing to worry about

Only one thing matters: how much of the sun’s energy we keep on earth vs what escapes into space. Climate gases trap heat, hence the greenhouse idea.

The updated graph is not good. More heat staying. Read NASA’s explainer here.

One thing to be optimistic about

2024 is the year for ‘EVs not selling’ in mainstream media.

So let’s check in on sales. Oh, up 20% (Bloomberg).

And in emerging markets? EVs growing like crazy (RMI):

If you’ve got more time, read this…

Did Big Oil know the world was under threat ages ago, and do nothing?

Yes. And we have the receipts (Heated).

• 1959: the American Petroleum Institute wrote a paper on how carbon affects the climate (X)

• 1975: Shell memo “‘increases in the CO2 content of the atmosphere could lead to the so-called greenhouse effect… which would be enough to induce major climatic changes.’ (New Age)

• 1979: Exxon memos forecast dramatic climate change

• 1988: Exxon had extremely accurate internal models for predicting climate change (Common Home)

There are already about 2,000 legal cases against fossil fuel companies. Expect more.

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